via Associated Press
CHINA – Strict confinement, massive testing campaigns, collective quarantine centers… For more than a month, the 26 million inhabitants of Shanghai have been subjected to strict discipline due to the worst wave of Covid in China since the start of the pandemic. The capital Beijing could soon suffer the same fate: a few dozen cases are detected daily, pushing the authorities to paralyze the city a little more by closing dozens of metro stations this Wednesday, May 4.
This so-called “zero Covid” strategy, which consists of completely stopping the spread of the virus, was decided by a man: President Xi Jinping. Except that this drastic policy, which only China has retained unlike Australia, New Zealand or South Korea, could turn against it a few months before the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. A crucial deadline during which he is aiming for a new term as secretary general of the party and which is a first step to keeping his post as president of the Republic, a function for which he has removed the limit of two terms in order to be re-elected potentially for life.
“The zero Covid strategy worked at the start of the pandemic”, recalls Valérie Niquet, China specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and author of Chinese power in 100 questions (Tallandier). « The Chinese state has also used its initial successes to show that it was superior to Westerners, who had thousands of deaths, to protect their population, » she adds.
“Omicron is a game changer”
China even celebrated its victory over the virus on September 8, 2020, during a ceremony chaired by Xi Jinping. “The power shows that the president is behind the success of this war against the coronavirus. There is a cult of personality that highlights its superiority, its success”, underlines Valérie Niquet.
“But Omicron has changed the situation,” she continues. We realize that its progress is too silent and important for the zero Covid strategy to work. While the other countries have decided to tolerate the virus and have started to live normally again, China confines and then deconfines always at the slightest case detected. Antoine Bondaz, also a researcher at the FRS, puts it into perspective: “The strategy has worked rather well recently in Xian (center) or in the province of Jilin (north-east). The problem is Shanghai, where there are still several thousand cases after five weeks of closure. Their number is however decreasing, there were more than 20,000 a few weeks ago. In any case, agree the two specialists, the power does not want to weaken after having praised its strategy so much, and excludes changing course.
Besides the political aspect, it is difficult for China to change the paradigm when it refused to buy foreign vaccines to promote its own, called Sinovac, which is less effective. From a health point of view, the abandonment of the zero Covid strategy when the health system is underdeveloped, herd immunity does not exist, and the vaccination rate remains low – around 20% of over 80-year-olds received a third dose- would dramatically increase cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
“A Shanghai problem”
Keeping this zero Covid strategy is hurting the Chinese economy, however. The confinement of several cities and especially of Shanghai, the economic capital of the country, has seized up supply chains and shut down businesses in most sectors. The port of Shanghai is congested, containers arrive and leave in dribs and drabs… This slowdown could prevent China from reaching its target of 5.5% growth in 2022.
This situation led the holder of an investment fund, Weijian Shan, reputed to be close to power, to sharply criticize the regime during a business meeting. “We have leadership that believes it knows what’s best for the economy and best for people’s lives. Alas, I think their knowledge and rationality have limits,” he reportedly said according to the Financial Times. For Antoine Bondaz, this criticism will not reach power: “The opinions of businessmen based abroad will have no influence. For the moment, business owners in the territory are saying nothing. And anyway, if China lets the virus slip away, the economic consequences would be even worse.”
The population is fed up. In Shanghai, confined residents showed their anger with concerts of pans and shouting at windows. Despite censorship, some videos have gone around the world. Food would run out. Antoine Bondaz further explains that these criticisms will not weaken the central state, which blames the local authorities. “It’s not a Chinese problem, but a Shanghai problem. There will surely be sanctions in the coming weeks,” he said. And to avoid a contagion of protest, « the state has implemented a very preventive policy in Beijing, » he adds. The inhabitants of the capital, for example, were tested several times in a week to prevent the spread of the virus.
What the?? This video taken yesterday in Shanghai, China, by the father of a close friend of mine. She verified its authenticity: People screaming out of their windows after a week of total lockdown, no leaving your apartment for any reason. pic.twitter.com/iHGOO8D8Cz
— Patrick Madrid ✌🏼 (@patrickmadrid) April 9, 2022
Xi Jinping reappointed but marginalized?
Valérie Niquet assures that internally, within the PCC, people are also starting to speak. “There have been articles in which people, scientists or politicians, question the need for this zero Covid strategy. For the moment, it is not very obvious but if the situation persists with Shanghai and Beijing, it could weigh on the future of Xi Jinping”, she judges.
Has the zero Covid strategy become a trap for the Chinese leader? “It’s not because there are problems that the regime will collapse overnight. It remains complicated to endanger Xi Jinping”, tempers Valérie Niquet. Yes, as long as the crisis remains local, adds Antoine Bondaz: “The Chinese strategy worked because the clusters were limited to certain regions, there was never national confinement. The propaganda is going full steam ahead, there is no sign of weakening. But if the health crisis becomes national, Xi Jinping could indeed be in danger.
Although it is still too early to imagine what may happen during the 20th Congress of the PCC, Valérie Niquet does not exclude the possibility of “debates inside the party between those who criticize and those who are for stability ». It seems certain that Xi Jinping will be reappointed but “his freedom may be reduced, he could be marginalized”. The end of near-absolute power? Answer in the fall.
See also also on the Huffpost: In China, an insane spectacle to the glory of 100 years of the Communist Party and the management of the Covid