The nationalist party in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein, in favor of reunification with the Republic of Ireland, could come out on top in the legislative elections organized on Thursday. A first in the country’s history. But more than a rise in power, it is rather the decline of its main rival, the loyalists of the Democratic Unionist Party, in power for a century, and the dilution of votes that would allow it to shine.
A political turning point for Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom? The Northern Irish people go to the polls, Thursday, May 5, to elect the 90 deputies of Stormont, their Parliament. And for the first time in the history of this British province, the nationalist, pro-reunification party, Sinn Fein, could come out on top. For several weeks, all the polls have given him a winner. He would win 26% of the vote against 20% for his main rival, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), attached to the British crown, which has dominated political life for a century.
This political earthquake would thus occur 24 years after the Good Friday agreement which put an end, in 1998, to the « Troubles »: thirty years of civil war which opposed the unionists, a majority of Protestants attached to the place of Ireland from the North within the United Kingdom and carried by the DUP, to the nationalists, a majority of Catholics who dream of a unified Ireland and for which Sinn Fein is carrying the fight.
This victory would above all be a symbolic earthquake in this territory where community divisions remain deep. Since Good Friday, the province has been governed by a system of equal power sharing between the two movements. So if these figures are confirmed, Sinn Fein would inherit the chair of Prime Minister and the DUP Deputy Prime Minister. The roles would therefore be reversed.
A generational change
A victory for Sinn Fein would have seemed unlikely to anyone who lived through the ‘Troubles’. For good reason, the party is known to have supported during this period the paramilitaries of the Republican Army of Ireland (IRA).
But for several years, the party has renewed its faces, allowing it to improve its image. In 2017, a former IRA member, Martin McGuinness, resigned as Deputy Prime Minister shortly before his death. A year later, Gerry Adams, emblematic leader of the party, gave way to the youth embodied by Michelle O’Neill who, at 45, is the current Deputy Prime Minister of the shared government. Dynamics confirmed by the arrival of Mary Lou McDonald, in 2018, at the head of the party at 49 years old. Both women enjoy a positive image in the media. But above all, they entered politics after 1998 and are therefore not linked to the three decades of bloody conflicts.
“Sinn Fein does not deny or condemn its past affiliation with the IRA,” notes Agnès Maillot, Northern Ireland specialist at the University of Dublin, author of the book “Rebels in Government”. “But, at the same time, he tries to separate as much as possible the current party, which is the one that has existed since the early 2000s, and that of the end of the 20th century.”
Moreover, if the raison d’être of the party remains the reunification of Ireland, its campaign has mainly revolved around the social question. The party has positioned itself on the left, trying to rally a young electorate, angry at the difficulties of housing and employment at a time when Northern Ireland is suffering from high inflation.
A sham victory
But even if Sinn Fein manages to restore its image and free itself from its past, it still constitutes a glass ceiling, according to Agnès Maillot. « For some people, and not just Unionists, it’s a red line, » she insists.
Proof of this is that if the polls give him a six-point lead over his DUP rival, they also show that he is stagnating at 26% of the vote, less than what he obtained in the last elections in 2017 (nearly 28%).
According to the specialist, more than a rise in power of Sinn Fein, this possible victory would sign rather a debacle of its rival, the DUP, and a renewed interest of the voters for « third voices » like the Alliance party.
Since 2016 and Brexit, the Unionist Party has been plagued by internal divisions. If it first supported the « Leave » during the referendum in 2016, the DUP had initially refused the exit protocol from the European Union proposed by Teresa May, which nevertheless guaranteed to maintain the status of Northern Ireland UK. Some time later, he decided to support Boris Johnson’s Northern Irish protocol, which nevertheless creates a customs border between the province and the rest of the United Kingdom. This is what crystallizes the tensions today.
« For some Unionist voters, the DUP is not doing enough to defend Northern Ireland’s constitutional place within the UK. Some of them are therefore tempted to turn to the traditional Unionist Voice party [TUV], a tougher formation », explains Agnès Maillot. « Others, on the contrary, believe that the party is too closely linked to the rejection of the Northern Ireland protocol. They therefore prefer to turn to the Ulster Unionist Party [UUP]more moderate.” The latter denounces the protocol but advocates a dialogue with Brussels.
Some prefer to turn to a third vote, in particular to Alliance, a party from the unionist ranks but which presents itself as neutral. For good reason, beyond the question of Brexit, the evangelical Protestant position of the DUP on social issues is disturbing more and more unionists. « These voters are pro-choice on abortion and pro-same-sex marriage and therefore prefer to turn to Alliance, » said Peter Shirlow, director of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool. « Conversely, the DUP is not looking to win them back, rather it is trying to rally the more conservative voters who have defected to the TUV. »
“Centrist parties attract nationalists as well as unionists,” he continues. According to him, there is « a high level of frustration » among voters, linked to the system of power sharing. « It was essential to end the conflict in the 1990s. But it did not allow to evacuate all the constitutional questions. » « It allowed party elites to stay in power » instead of focusing on pressing issues like the state of public services, he said.
Still, analysts expect the DUP to hold up better than the polls predict. Some undecided Unionists will end up « holding their noses and voting DUP » to try to prevent Sinn Fein from winning, analyzes Peter Shirlow.
« A majority of the Northern Irish electorate wants to stay in the UK »
Whatever the outcome of Thursday’s election will not reflect a decline in support for unionism, experts also agree.
Despite the unease caused by Brexit, polls show that a majority of the Northern Irish electorate wants to stay in the United Kingdom. A study by the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, carried out last December, revealed that only 30% of Northern Irish voters would vote tomorrow for a united Ireland – and that 33.4% of they could see themselves doing it in 10 to 15 years.
Far from the current dynamics on Good Friday, many Northern Irish Catholics now feel comfortable being attached to the United Kingdom. « Even though the Catholic population is growing, there are still many more Catholics who support union than Protestants who support a united Ireland, » said Peter Shirlow. « Many Catholics have a material interest in remaining in the union, whether they work in the public sector or for UK-linked businesses. Many refuse to experience the turmoil that joining the union would entail. Republic of Ireland, » he concludes.
This article was adapted from English by Cyrielle Cabot, the original can be found here.
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